律动BlockBeats|7月 28, 2026 10:24
[Analysis: BTC is about to trigger a violent directional move, spot 5% range concentration has climbed to 12%]
BlockBeats News, July 28, crypto analyst Murphy pointed out that the concentration of BTC spot price within the 5% range has been steadily increasing, rising from 10% in May to the current 12%. Although it is still some distance from the critical threshold of 15%, it has already surpassed the level that triggered significant volatility in May. The logic is that when tokens are overly concentrated within a certain price range, even small price fluctuations can intensify the turnover of sensitive tokens, thereby causing greater volatility. Historical data shows that when the concentration exceeds 15%, the probability of triggering a major market move is higher. For instance, it reached 18% in November 2025 and 16% in January 2026. However, after February this year, price declines triggered a marginal diminishing effect on the supply side, and prolonged periods of low liquidity and low turnover have made token concentration less pronounced than before. Nevertheless, in May, a concentration of just 10% already led to significant volatility, indicating that market sentiment has become more fragile and unstable.
The analyst predicts that if BTC continues to consolidate within the $62,000 to $66,000 range in the near future, the token concentration is bound to rise further, ultimately leading to a violent upward or downward breakout to redistribute the overly concentrated tokens. This could potentially mark a critical directional choice at the tail end of the current bear market. The spot 5% range concentration has successfully assisted in predicting volatility directions at several key junctures in the past, and the current indicator's rise suggests that the market is gradually approaching the next window for significant volatility.
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