[The probability of 'Effective Ceasefire Between the U.S. and Iran Before July 31' on Polymarket Rises to 59%, Up 19% in a Single Day] Monitoring by the PPP prediction market tool shows that the probability of 'Effective Ceasefire Between the U.S. and Iran Before July 31' on Polymarket has risen to 59%, up 19% in a single day. For this event, if the U.S. refrains from taking any military action against Iran that meets the defined criteria for 14 consecutive days before the specified deadline, the outcome will be settled as 'Yes'; otherwise, it will be 'No.' Qualifying military actions include U.S.-initiated airstrikes or surface-to-surface missile attacks directly targeting Iranian territory, such as bombings, air-to-surface missiles, air-launched drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. Actions that do not count include intercepted or destroyed munitions, surface-to-air missiles, small-scale skirmishes, ground operations, cyberattacks, naval shelling, artillery strikes, and unexecuted threats or authorized actions. If disputes arise regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of relevant military actions, the event will await a consensus formed by official information and credible media reports before being adjudicated. If disagreements persist after three full calendar days, a comprehensive judgment will be made based on all available information at the time. Settlement criteria include official information from the U.S. and Iranian governments and military, as well as credible media reports. Join the PPP signal notification community to stay ahead and seize opportunities.