Murphy|7月 26, 2026 04:44
In the next 5 days, the influence of the options market on spot prices will be at its highest level this month.
Before settlement is completed, the constraints of the options structure on price are likely to outweigh macro factors and spot capital flows.
A total of 147,000 BTC contracts, including 32,641 Puts and 114,937 Calls, with a notional value of approximately $9.5 billion.
This scale far exceeds the weekly settlement in August and is on par with the quarterly settlements on 9/25 and 12/25.
The put/call wall, max pain, market makers' GEX structure, and hedging activities will collectively impact BTC's short-term price movements.
After Friday's settlement, the overall structure will disappear, and the main positions will shift to 9/25 and 12/25. Early August is likely to see a noticeable increase in price flexibility.
Historically, volatility expansion is a common scenario following large-scale settlements.
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