2014: 101 days after the orange line broke below the purple line, we hit the bear market bottom 2018: 130 days after the orange line broke below the purple line, we hit the bear market bottom 2022: 195 days after the orange line broke below the purple line, we hit the bear market bottom 2026: 130 days after the orange line breaks below the purple line, we could hit $57.8k ┌── On-Chain Data Details ──┐ In the chart: The orange line = Balanced Price The purple line = LTH Realized Price When Balanced Price drops below LTH Realized Price, it means: ● LTH Realized Price represents the average buy-in cost of long-term holders (holding for over 155 days) and serves as a key support level ● Balanced Price is an on-chain metric specifically designed to predict bear market bottoms (calculated as the realized price minus the transfer price across the network) ● When the two cross (Balanced drops below LTH), it indicates that the potential bear market low calculated by the model is now below the cost basis of long-term holders What this means: The market might face a deeper cleansing, but at the same time, it’s entering the historical bear market bottom zone—often a prime window for value accumulation.