UBS believes that the market's expectation of interest rate hikes is too aggressive, and none of the three hard conditions have been met. I just saw UBS's latest statement bluntly stating that the current market's bet on the Fed raising interest rates is too aggressive, and investors have overinterpreted the hawkish language released by Walsh at last week's interest rate meeting. The bank's benchmark judgment is that the Fed will maintain interest rates unchanged for a long time until 2027 when it turns to interest rate cuts. UBS has a very important dimension here: during the Federal Reserve's comprehensive policy review cycle, the committee needs to fully discuss various reform plans, which will delay all major interest rate adjustments. If it is difficult for officials to form a unified consensus internally, the pace of policy implementation will slow down again. During the review phase, whether it is a rate hike or a rate cut, the Federal Reserve will remain cautious and its willingness to take policy action will significantly decrease. Is this similar to last week when I was here at https://(x.com)/qinba frank/status/2067547681745178808? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A is very consistent: institutional reform is a research that will be conducted for the next six months, and the promotion method and pace will be determined after obtaining the research conclusions. During this period, it is highly likely that no action will be taken. UBS has set three hard conditions for significantly increasing the probability of interest rate hikes: sustained inflation expectations, economic growth rebounding above 2.5%, and sustained decline in unemployment rate (which should worsen here). Given that none of these three indicators have been met at this stage, the feasibility of short-term interest rate hikes is extremely low. This is consistent with the benchmark situation that I talked about this morning, which is not raising interest rates within the year. As for the trend of interest rates in the year 27, we will have to wait until the end of the year to see (it is not meaningful to make a deduction so early)