In the tweet below, I predicted: If there's no positive expectation of a US-Iran ceasefire agreement, the probability of BTC's rebound peaking at 64,500 is 80%. If the US and Iran actually sign a ceasefire agreement, the positive news will turn into a negative, and the price will at most spike to around 65,000. Bitcoin is bound to experience a major drop to test the bottom, it's just that the rebound peak and timing of the trend shift will differ slightly. The long/short volume, weekly 5-wave downtrend structure, and on-chain data have already indicated a mid-term downward trend.