SPCX might experience a situation where the total market cap keeps rising, but the stock price continues to drop. This is because locked shares are being gradually unlocked. Here’s a detailed breakdown of SpaceX’s phased unlocking schedule for this lock-up period: There’s no one-size-fits-all 180-day lock-up period. Insiders can sell in batches, and the first batch can be sold much earlier than the standard IPO lock-up period most people are familiar with. Here’s the timeline: 1/ After the Q2 2026 earnings report, around August 11, up to 20% will be unlocked first. If SPCX’s price in 5 out of the last 10 trading days is 30% higher than the IPO price of $135 (i.e., above $175.50), an additional 10% can be unlocked. 2/ On the 70th, 90th, 105th, 120th, and 135th days after the IPO, there will be 5 more batches unlocked based on time. Each batch will release 7% of eligible shares. 3/ After the Q3 2026 earnings report, around late October to early November, another 28% will be unlocked. 4/ On the 180th day after the IPO, around December 9, the remaining shares will be fully unlocked. Elon Musk and some core investors have a longer lock-up period of 366 days. Their shares won’t be unlocked until around June 2027. Now, let’s talk about scale: This IPO sold approximately 555.6 million shares, accounting for about 4.2% of the total share capital. This means that the actual circulating shares after listing are very limited. The remaining 95.8% are shares locked before the IPO. The shares that can be released early mainly belong to employees and early supporters, and they will be unlocked in phases. This design is pretty smart. It doesn’t concentrate all the selling pressure on a single day but spreads it out over several waves. However, keep a close eye on the August earnings report. That will be the first truly significant unlocking window, with up to 30% of eligible shares potentially being released. Throughout the fall, shares will gradually flow into the market. Right now, the float is very small, so when it rises, it will rise sharply, and when it falls, it will fall hard. Not financial advice. This tweet is supported by @MSX_CN. Let quality assets flow freely. https://(msx.com)/?code=Hl6B41