Brothers and sisters, CZ said, "Bitcoin will not die for too long. Don't panic, use large friendly fonts." How do you understand it? Don't panic, brothers. Hold on, Bitcoin won't die. Don't sell Bitcoin, it will soon usher in a bull market. 1、 What is the purpose of CZ saying this sentence? CZ is the founder of Binance and the behind the scenes owner of the world's largest exchange. Market panic → user selling → unfavorable for trading volume on the exchange. He has ample motivation to encourage users not to panic. This is not to say that he deliberately lied, but his words carry a slight commercial stance. However, overall, the starting point is friendly, encouraging everyone to hold on and firmly believe. The upcoming bull market in the big cycle will definitely come! 2、 Where is his statement correct? Bitcoin won't die "- it's right in the long run. Bitcoin has experienced countless "deaths" in the past, and it is still there. I also believe that Bitcoin will see a bear market bottom in the second half of this year, and it is estimated that a gold pit bottom will appear around October, probably above 40000. It may return to the start of a bull market early next year. Don't panic "- Panic is really useless, emotional manipulation usually results in losses. 3、 Where did his words go wrong? How long does' not die for too long 'mean? a week? a month? a year? Without a time dimension, it cannot be verified. 'Use big friendly fonts' - a typical emotional soothing technique, not technical analysis. However, I do appreciate his coming out now to give everyone a sense of grandeur. If the cryptocurrency circle dies completely, it will not benefit anyone! However, the cryptocurrency industry is definitely not going to die, although US stock trading has flooded into the platforms of various exchanges. 4、 What is the outlook for the future price trend of Bitcoin? Quantitative improvement: There has been no bullish main quantitative signal in the 4-hour and daily lines, and the bulls have not yet entered the market. Instead, the bullish quantitative energy is declining. On chain data: Institutions are selling at record levels, Beile De has been selling BTC diligently recently, smart money and miners are running, and retail investors are taking orders. Macroscopically, the May CPI in the United States was 4.2%, Japan's interest rate hike countdown, the World Cup drained liquidity, and exchanges were also drawing blood from US stock trading. The decision of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates has been put on the agenda. Simply put, Bitcoin will not die in the long term, but it will continue to decline in the medium term (6-12 months). Now is not the bottom, 60000 is not the end, and there is a high probability that 40000 Bitcoin will be seen in the second half of the year. 5、 My personal conclusion CZ's words can be listened to, but cannot be used as a basis for trading. He is an exchange owner, not a market analyst. He sees the price trend of Bitcoin as long-term, with a large cycle time dimension. Trading decisions only consider market signals, volume improvement, and on chain data. These three things are currently pointing in the same direction - rebounding upwards, with the main bearish trend. 60000 is the first stop, and 42000-45000 is the final stop. Bitcoin BTC bear market bottom CZ cycle