星球日报|May 24, 2026 12:39
[Analysis: Hormuz Strait Navigation Resumption Nears, Awaiting Demand Recovery]
Odaily Planet Daily News - CITIC Securities believes that the U.S. and Iran are increasingly close to reaching an agreement, and the market has largely priced this in as the baseline scenario. The biggest change after the agreement is reached will be the simultaneous recovery of supply and demand, along with a rapid rebound in economic activity. Currently, some economic indicators are noticeably weak, reflecting delayed demand ahead of the U.S.-Iran agreement and the resumption of navigation in the Hormuz Strait. Microeconomic entities are waiting rather than rushing to restock and resume operations, which is an abnormal disruption. Once the agreement is reached and the strait reopens, supply and demand will return to normal. Economic activity is expected to improve significantly after June, and changes in macroeconomic variables will also alter the market's strategic assumptions, leading to a gradual balancing of investment styles. The reduction of large-scale holdings is nearing its end, and as macroeconomic stability returns, allocation-driven funds will gradually come back, driving the recovery of some undervalued sectors. In terms of allocation, continue to actively reduce volatility and rebuild the barbell structure of AI + energy and chemicals. (Jin10)
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