𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂
𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂|5月 12, 2026 22:02
The Fed has lost credibility on inflation to a degree, and inflation expectations have risen, but we haven't seen them fully unanchored across the board. Maybe that comes. The tricky bit here is that yield bearing cash (measured by money markets) as a % of GDP is at all time highs, so elevated rates are stimulative to creditors while intending to curb demand. This actively undermines the role higher rates are meant to play in softening demand. At the same time, job growth is THE LOWEST in US HISTORY outside of recessions, and commercial bank lending to households and firms is ALREADY suppressed. This counterweights any desire to simply jack rates even higher to cool demand. The top 10-15% are flush and it won't really slow them down. The dual mandates are not in a good place on either side for the Fed here, which is partly why they're doing as little as possible. I would not want that job. There are no elegant solutions here. Not while the govt is running perpetually large deficits with no sign of slowing down.(𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂)
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