Phyrex|6月 11, 2026 16:16
I accidentally fell asleep after finishing my meal today and woke up now, missing the PPI data. However, generally speaking, the market's reaction to PPI is not strong. From the data, the broad PPI data is not good, indicating that the annual cost of production is increasing. Although the monthly rate is equal to the previous value, it is higher than expected, which is not a good thing.
Only the core PPI data is acceptable, with annual rates lower than expected but equal to previous values, and monthly rates lower than expected and previous values. But the response of the core monthly rate is to remove food and energy. Overall, gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel, industrial chemicals, plastic resins, and transportation costs are all rising, indicating that upstream costs are beginning to penetrate into the industry chain.
Looking at CPI alone, the market could have breathed a sigh of relief. The May CPI was 0.5% month on month and 4.2% year-on-year, which is indeed higher than the previous value. But the core CPI was only 0.2% month on month and 2.9% year-on-year, indicating that the core inflation on the consumer side has not yet completely spiraled out of control. A large part of CPI this time is also driven by energy.
If solving the energy problem can indeed curb inflation, but looking at CPI and PPI together, it can be found that consumer inflation is temporarily controllable, but production inflation has become apparent.
PPI is the cost side, CPI is the consumer side. PPI is stronger than CPI, indicating that companies are facing higher procurement, transportation, energy, and production costs.
The following are roughly two trends:
The first option is for companies to pass on costs to consumers, and subsequently, CPI and PCE may continue to rise.
The second type is that companies dare not raise prices, which compresses their profit margins and is detrimental to their profitability.
So the PPI data this time is not good data no matter how you look at it, especially for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, which is not friendly.
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