比特币橙子Trader|Mar 08, 2026 03:33
This article breaks down the BITCOIN cycle analysis perfectly!
Gold is skyrocketing, the US stock market keeps hitting new highs, so why is Bitcoin still struggling in a micro pullback?
Bitcoin is currently in the fifth phase of its macro cycle, but before entering the final parabolic growth phase, it’s going through a micro correction cycle.
By comparing the leading performance of the US stock market and the negative correlation with gold, Bitcoin often starts to explode only after gold finishes its rally.
1️⃣ Bitcoin Cycle Analysis
Five Phases: Bull Market → Bear Market → Macro Accumulation Range → Breakout → Test Range High → Parabolic All-Time High.
Macro + Micro Nesting: Before entering the fifth macro phase, there’s usually a micro pullback cycle.
Current Status: Bitcoin is in a micro downtrend cycle and hasn’t yet entered the final parabolic phase.
2️⃣ Key Support Logic
Lagging Behind US Stocks: Bitcoin cycles typically lag behind mainstream stocks by about 100–300 days.
Gold Rotation Effect: Funds flow into gold first, and only after gold hits a parabolic peak do they flow into Bitcoin.
Historical Patterns: During gold’s major rallies, Bitcoin usually consolidates; once gold finishes its run, Bitcoin tends to explode.
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