Four-year cycle, Pi Cycle Top, MVRV Z, Rainbow Chart, Altseason Index, Fear & Greed, NVT, S2F—many classic indicators have failed simultaneously in this market cycle. The issue isn’t that a specific model 'miscalculated,' but that the assumptions they all rely on have been rewritten: with ETFs and institutional funds entering the space, volatility has been flattened; Bitcoin’s pricing is increasingly influenced by macro liquidity and policies; trading and settlement are happening more on exchanges, L2s, and custodial systems, reducing the representativeness of on-chain data. As a result, applying these indicators using old thresholds makes the signals weaker, slower, or even contradictory. A more practical approach is to treat them as conditional tools: first confirm their applicable boundaries and assumptions, then decide whether to trust them, rather than using them as a single buy/sell switch.