Phyrex|Dec 17, 2025 09:19
To be honest, I think the Asian forecast market (I)
Recently, many projects that predict the market have sought cooperation, including those with high international recognition. However, without exception, these projects focus on sports and politics, and almost all of them use football and basketball as a means of attracting traffic, hoping to open up markets in Asia and even the Chinese speaking region.
But I can responsibly say that these methods are already very difficult to open up the market in both the Asian and Chinese speaking regions. Let's not talk about unlicensed predictions. Even in licensed predictions, there are two biggest risks. One is being defined as gambling, and accounts related to the agreement are directly marked as involved in gambling. Why does PolyMarket care so much about licenses, just to enter the United States?
Secondly, there is a lack of adaptation to the local environment. Indeed, FIFA, World Cup, and NBA have a significant presence in the Asian or Chinese speaking markets. However, how many of these users are cryptocurrency users? Are these users willing to place bets for the results, and do they want to place bets through cryptocurrency platforms?
On the contrary, in the Asian market, e-sports has a higher proportion and a wider audience, especially in the Asian market where video websites have been nurturing it for years and have formed a very strong "serving dishes". Even many friends in the cryptocurrency field discuss more about games rather than sports at gatherings. So, can e-sports attract a large number of users?
The answer may still be disappointing, isn't it about the popularity of esports? Why is it so popular on prediction platforms that they still can't take on the big picture? This still returns to the most fundamental question, who are the users of your platform, do your platform users have sufficient purchasing power, are your platform users accustomed to using cryptocurrency for settlement, do your platform users have a smooth deposit and withdrawal system, and do your platform users use it smoothly.
I once posed this question to several colleagues who predict the market:
Trump and I both made a prediction
Trump said that our food has been prepared. Guess whether it is Chinese food or Western food.
And what I posted is whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates tonight.
We all post predictions on the same platform and share our own predictions on Twitter. Whose predictions have more participants? I don't think this is a difficult question to answer, so I'm changing the question.
I and the system have both published a prediction
The system announced, who is the winner of tonight's NBA game?
And what I posted is, who is the male lead of the big melon that happened tonight?
We all post predictions on the same platform and share our own predictions on Twitter. Whose predictions have more participants? I don't think it's a difficult question to get back to.
What does this mean? The effect brought by traffic is the greatest. Yes, in the NBA and elections in the United States, traffic is the largest. But is this traffic really the largest in vertical markets? The maximum traffic may be a certain person, a certain event, or a certain behavior, rather than a predetermined formula.
At present, the prediction market is no longer just competing with Kalshi and Polymarket, but with a large number of moat ecosystems surrounding them. For example, Kalshi will cooperate with Coinbase, and a well-known wallet will launch its own prediction market. They know more about traffic in Europe and America, but they are still not very clear about traffic in Asia.
This is like Sony struggling to compete with Xbox in "cars, guns, balls", but Xbox struggling to compete with Nintendo in RPG and creative games is the same principle.
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