律动BlockBeats
律动BlockBeats|Dec 02, 2025 14:58
Bitfinex Report: Market Approaching Local Bottom and Transitioning to Consolidation Stage According to BlockBeats, on December 2nd, Bitfinex released a report stating that "last week, Bitcoin experienced a significant rebound, which is consistent with our previous view that the market is approaching a local bottom in terms of time, although whether the bottom at the price level has already appeared remains to be seen. However, with extreme deleveraging, surrender of short-term holders, and signs of seller weakness, we believe that the market has laid the foundation for the start of a stable phase. The on chain indicators further confirm this viewpoint: the adjusted expenditure to profit ratio has only fallen below 1 for the third time since early 2024, which is consistent with the loss realization dynamics observed at previous cyclical lows (August 2024 and April 2025). The current depth of losses can also be seen from the realized losses of entity adjustments, soaring to $403.4 million per day, exceeding the measurement level of this indicator at previous major lows. The realized losses at this level usually indicate that surrender is nearing completion, rather than the beginning of a deeper decline. Meanwhile, derivative data shows that the market is undergoing a controlled reset: the total open interest (OI) of BTC futures has dropped to $59.17 billion, far below the peak of $94.12 billion, indicating that leverage is being systematically digested. The continuous contraction of OI and the rise in spot prices indicate that the market is more about short covering rather than a new round of speculative risk accumulation, which further strengthens the view that the market is transitioning to a more stable consolidation stage, reduces vulnerability, and may establish a sustained recovery bottom in the fourth quarter
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