Benson Sun|Dec 01, 2025 07:15
As long as Tether can continue to achieve 1:1 redemption of US dollars, all FUDs will naturally fall apart, and there is actually no need to worry about this.
But the fact that Tether uses its debt side to leverage and bet on the rise of BTC/gold is really ugly to be honest.
In the latest USDT reserve report:
BTC: 100 billion US dollars
Gold: 13 billion US dollars
A total of 23 billion US dollars, accounting for 12.5% of all reserves
That is to say:
Tether used 12.5% of the USDT reserves originally intended for 1:1 repayment to bet on a macro direction of $23 billion.
Arthur Hayes' viewpoint is:
If BTC+gold falls too much, Tether's equity may be depleted, and Tether will become insolvent. ''
Tether CEO's counterattack is:
We have made a profit from the interest on government bonds, and we have retained a substantial surplus. There is no need to worry
But the problem lies here:
Since there is so much retained earnings, why not keep equity to buy BTC&gold?
Why is it necessary to use the 'reserve fund' to bet on the direction?
The debt side of USDT is entirely in US dollars. If the US dollar really depreciates, the debt will also shrink accordingly, and there is no need to buy BTC/gold to hedge against inflation risks.
Anyone with basic financial knowledge will ask this question.
The answer is actually quite simple:
Equity is your own money
The reserve fund is the customer's money
So:
Going long with equity → called self operation
Going long with reserves → called leverage
I believe Tether is indeed very profitable,
But no matter how much they make, they cannot use the company's own funds to buy an extra $23 billion in BTC+gold positions.
But using reserves is different, even if you only bet 10% on the direction, it is much more money than the company can get out of self operation.
And if these risky positions make money, all the profits will go into Tether's pocket, and USDT holders will not receive a penny.
In recent years, Tether has earned a lot from the interest on government bonds, and it still needs to use its reserves to amplify its returns.
Ugly, really ugly.
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