The Fed's policy focus has completely shifted to 'supporting growth/preventing recession,' while simultaneously taking action to maintain financial system liquidity. Policy actions and timeline: ⚡️ Rate cut probability: The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is as high as 81%-83% (CME FedWatch), mainly supported by a weakening labor market and declining inflation. Stopping QT: On December 1, 2025, it is confirmed that the reduction of the balance sheet (QT) will stop. The focus shifts from 'actively withdrawing liquidity' to 'maintaining liquidity stability.' What does 'rate cut + stopping QT' mean? This is the strongest dual easing signal, and risk assets will be boosted. As for whether it can lead to a strong upward trend, we’ll have to keep watching.