This analysis of liquidity forecasts for the next three months, published on the 11th, revealed that liquidity would tighten again before the end of the month due to Treasury cash rebuilding, and would remain low until the end of the month. At the time, I knew Bitcoin would fall, but the 12,000-point drop in three days was still beyond expectations. Furthermore, stablecoin issuance has continued to decrease since the midterm elections, and ETFs have seen continuous large net outflows. The underlying reasons are likely these: 1) Market concerns about tightening crypto policies after the Democrats control Congress; 2) The aftermath of the massive hack, leading to large funds questioning the security of cryptocurrencies; 3) The underlying reason is still the continued tightening of liquidity. Another potential impact is that this week, Anthropic's roadshow began, and institutions are adjusting their portfolios to absorb liquidity for next week's IPO subscriptions. Remember the drop below $60,000 in early June, which occurred during SpaceX's IPO roadshow. I predicted a Bitcoin correction from late September until the end of October, but the midterm elections changed the US political landscape and I underestimated the market's concerns about tightening crypto policies under Democratic control of Congress. Another point is the failure to promptly extrapolate the new detailed liquidity pace based on the Treasury's refinancing statement at the beginning of the month. Although the Treasury's TGA target of $850 billion at the end of December remains unchanged, the TGA at the end of November is roughly the same as at the end of October, meaning that liquidity remained poor throughout November without any recovery. If a closer look had been taken earlier, the shift might have been faster; there was an overemphasis on this point. The essence is still incompetence; the failure to adjust and adapt in time. Going forward, we need to see if the Treasury can release liquidity as expected by the end of December, and if a new CR agreement can be reached before mid-December to maintain the government from shutting down until early next year. If both of these conditions are met, a liquidity recovery should help stabilize Bitcoin. As for concerns about longer-term crypto policies, we may have to wait until the new Congress takes office to see if the market will find that even though the negative impact of the Democratic majority in Congress (a simple majority rather than an absolute majority) is strong, its power is not that great (imagine that in the past two years, when the Republicans held a simple majority in Congress, clear bills still failed to pass, and the Democratic simple majority also made it difficult to pass legislation).