帕尔 | 無極Infinity®|Nov 14, 2026 14:07
Yesterday and today's live streams expressed the same view.
The narrative has changed: Previously, the willingness to buy on dips stemmed from the economic narrative.
As long as attention was focused on whether the Fed would raise interest rates, whether liquidity would improve, and whether the AI revolution could drive productivity growth, the market was willing to give risk assets higher valuations as long as economic and profit expectations were strong enough.
But now, new pricing variables have emerged.
The changes in congressional power following the midterm elections, Jensen Huang's departure, and the chip export investigation have propelled AI beyond a simple story of technological growth into the realm of political maneuvering and national security.
The narrative is further expanding towards partisan politics.
The core of partisan politics is power; for the sake of power, the economy becomes secondary. This is why, previously we primarily judged how much money AI could generate; now we also need to judge at what speed and in what way politics and regulation allow it to generate revenue.
Therefore, there are three key points to observe next week:
① Nvidia's earnings report—Does the logic of AI demand and capital expenditure still hold true?
② APEC—Are there new signals regarding the boundaries of US-China technological competition and cooperation? ③ Anthropic IPO – How high a valuation is the market willing to pay for the long-term growth of AI?
④ Note on Huang's Congressional Investigation – The closed-door briefing on November 18th has been changed to a new inquiry on December 1st. This is now a "handle," determining how many people and how far it will affect the market.
During periods of macroeconomic volatility, the previous technical support levels are a joke.
Remember this: When the narrative changes, the most fatal mistake is still trying to buy the dip using the old narrative.
Of course, the Fed's interest rate decision remains important, but the partisan conflict, or rather, Trump's tactics over the next two years, are crucial.
Can he protect those around him? Can he withstand the Democrats' tactics?
For us retail investors, there's no need to follow the big money and stubbornly hold on at the left side.
I won't try to buy the dip; I'll patiently wait for right-side signals, for high-certainty possibilities.
The current strategy is simple: contract the cycle and follow the market's volatility.
Share To
Timeline
HotFlash
APP
X
Telegram
CopyLink