0xarthur
0xarthur|Nov 13, 2026 18:19
Everyone knows there's a bubble in AI; it's just a matter of when it will burst. This kind of nationally-driven infrastructure construction is very different from previous infrastructure projects. Take railways as an example. Even if the market declines, the infrastructure investment can last for 10 or 20 years, generating revenue. The investment is short-term, but the value created is long-term. But AI is different. Once computing power is deployed, new chips emerge in a year or two, rendering the old ones obsolete. Chip procurement costs account for the bulk of the entire AI industry. The investment is short-term, but the risks are long-term. For more details, listen to @kingluffywang's channel; he explains it very well. The initial trigger for the bursting of the AI bubble was likely the 'Remote Access Security Act'. At the time, the US imposed chip controls on China, but there was a clever way to circumvent it: chips didn't enter China; computing power was deployed overseas, and then transmitted back to China. Although more expensive, it was compliant. This bill authorizes the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) to govern and process remote and cloud-based access to controlled technologies, prohibiting the backhaul of computing power to bypass the blockade. What did this lead to? Simply put, Oracle and Tencent's $7 billion overseas computing power contract was aborted. And this is just the publicly stated contract; many more contracts with other companies, such as MegaSpeed, were canceled. This directly impacted NVIDIA's orders and the entire AI market. Following this, major companies began reducing AI spending and business lines. Some say Coze was ruined because Harness was destroyed, but that's just the surface. At worst, they can transform; at least the team, users, and business remain. The fundamental reason is the comprehensive tightening of the capital market. Anthropic's valuation dropped from $2 trillion to $1.3 trillion, a nearly 50% discount, just to rush its IPO. Whether it's Jensen Huang or Elon Musk, they are merely pawns in this national struggle. In the midst of the US-China AI war, the US suddenly shot itself in the foot. China is completely bewildered, and so is the market.
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