TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|Nov 13, 2026 15:42
Today's widespread decline is likely due to a combination of factors: profit-taking after previous bottom-fishing, rising 10-year US Treasury yields, and a potential rush to withdraw liquidity due to impending tightening. The tightening measures mentioned on the 10th may be later than previously anticipated. According to the Treasury's plan: the pace will likely be tighter for two weeks initially, looser for one month in December, tighter again from January to mid-February, and then continuous easing from late February. From now until the end of November: approximately $110 billion will be withdrawn, the tightest phase. December: approximately $175 billion will be released, the loosest phase. January to mid-February: another approximately $175 billion will be withdrawn. From late February: continuous easing. However, there is also the possibility of a government shutdown on December 12th. Republicans may try to secure funding while both houses of Congress are in session, but appropriations require 60 Senate votes, necessitating Democratic cooperation. However, the Democrats are likely only willing to provide two or three months, hoping to drag things out until they are in power before further negotiations. However, this means the new deadline falls between mid-February and mid-March, coinciding with the debt ceiling. If the debt ceiling is raised, the monetary easing that began in late February will cease. If the situation remains deadlocked, money may continue to be released, but public opinion and market sentiment will be entirely focused on the shutdown and defaults, resulting in a disconnect between liquidity recovery and sentiment recovery, making it difficult for the market to recover.
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