链研社|AI First🔶💧
链研社|AI First🔶💧|Nov 13, 2026 15:08
The rebound following the PPI release has been completely wiped out, but this has little to do with tonight's Fed speeches. Collins (22:10) and Logan (22:40) both explicitly stated they would not discuss monetary policy or the economic outlook, offering no new signals on whether December's PPI increase would be 25 or 50 basis points, inflation stickiness, or the core 0.3% rate. Logan focused entirely on liquidity arrangements, suggesting extending the discount window to weekends and holidays, and strengthening preparations for lending to financial market infrastructure. She also noted that despite significant interest rate volatility, the US Treasury market is functioning smoothly. This isn't exactly dovish; it's more about preparing for funding pressures in advance, and the interest rate stance remains unchanged. Prices fell after the market opened. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1%, NVDA fell 2.48%, Brent crude rose to around $97, and BTC fell 3.5%, dropping below $69,000. Therefore, this rebound was reversed due to chip selling coupled with rising yields and oil prices. A 25 basis point rate hike in December is still fully priced in, and tonight's speech did not increase the probability of a 50 basis point hike. The real policy signal could come from Bowman's speech at 23:50. If she reiterates her stance from November 10th, emphasizing that financial conditions have tightened and that rate hikes must be weighed against costs, the index has a chance to recover to 7655 and 28550. If she shifts to supporting further rate hikes, futures are likely to continue their downward trend.
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