水博乱乱
水博乱乱|Nov 12, 2026 12:11
I checked and... both the bull/bear ratio and the index have dropped to 0... The sentiment on the blockchain is even worse than in June when there were 58k to 60k coins... After a closer look, I think it's due to a few reasons: 1. Many coins are shifting from contract-based exchanges (like Binance, OKEx, Bybit, Deribit) to spot-based exchanges like Coinbase. The underlying logic is that leveraged funds are leaving the market, withdrawing margin (coin-based), reducing leverage, and either holding or selling their coins... (In a bull market, people move coins to contract exchanges to open contracts with leverage; in a bear market, they reduce leverage and move coins back from contract exchanges for regular holding.) Therefore, deleveraging has continued recently. -------- 2. Network activity is very low, falling below the long-term average. If you intuitively feel that "the BTC market is dead," then your feeling is correct... Fewer people are playing, fewer people are trading, fewer on-chain transfers... --> low network activity. So the current sentiment has dropped to 0 points. However, historically, this model doesn't show much difference between 0 and 2 points. 0 points isn't necessarily worse than 2 points... and 0 points isn't necessarily the bottom. This only tells us the current overall on-chain sentiment and whether bulls should enter the market... it can't determine where the bottom is. What we care about is when the 4 threshold will be regained. (Currently, it seems likely to be after the daily chart reaches 76.5k, which resonates with other indicators such as the cost basis of short-term on-chain holders.)
Share To

HotFlash

APP

X

Telegram

Facebook

Reddit

CopyLink

Hot Reads