BloFin Research|Nov 12, 2026 02:30
Three things to watch:
1. Forced selling looks manageable.
MSCI-tracking funds would need to sell an estimated 13M shares, roughly 3.1% of shares outstanding and less than one day's typical trading volume.
2. The bigger risk is Strategy's Bitcoin accumulation model.
Strategy relies heavily on capital raising to fund BTC purchases. Losing passive index demand could put further pressure on its mNAV premium, already near 1.08x.
A shrinking premium makes new equity issuance less accretive, potentially slowing future Bitcoin accumulation.
3. Other index providers could follow.
MSTR is also included in the Nasdaq-100. If other major indices adopt similar exclusion criteria, passive selling pressure and the impact on institutional demand could become significantly larger.
#MSTR #Bitcoin #MSCI #Strategy
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