After the continuous decline in BTC, how much selling pressure remains in the market? Have those eager to exit already sold off most of their holdings? I compared the daily cost distribution of STH tokens (physical quantity) since October 28th, attempting to find clues about market sentiment and the strength of selling pressure from the behavioral changes of different cost groups. Here are a few noteworthy phenomena (I'm only sharing what I observed): 1. External supply stopped after early November; The total STH supply increased by 93,000 tokens; this is most likely due to LTH tokens being distributed to new buyers during the first phase of the decline. However, 78,000 of these occurred before November 2nd, and after November 5th, the total supply remained basically flat (LTH distribution decreased), indicating that the turnover shifted from high-cost to low-cost within STH. 2. Buyers at higher prices are cutting their losses, but the pace is slowing; Tokens above $81k have decreased by 16.5% in 14 days. 88,000 tokens flowed out in the first 7 days, only 39,000 in the next 6 days, and less than 4,000 per day from November 7th to 9th, even after the price hit a new low on November 8th. 3. Early low-cost tokens are decreasing at a steady pace; From $58k to $72k, 4,000 to 11,000 tokens flowed out daily, with little difference between rebound and decline days, but a slight acceleration in the last two days. This may be due to profit-taking, or tokens held for 155 days becoming long-term holders. 4. The price has fallen below the average cost of STH; The percentage of tokens with floating losses has increased from 33% to 67%; currently, those who bought at $77k are still holding on. At the peak of $77.0k on November 3rd, there were 260,000 tokens, and now there are 235,000, meaning 90% haven't moved, with floating losses of 4% to 6%. This is currently the largest single price range, and whether it loosens is the most important variable going forward. ------------------------------------ In summary, the current selling pressure structure in the market is changing. In the first phase, LTH (Low-Treasure) shares were likely the primary source of distribution; in the second phase, as external supply weakened, the market shifted to internal turnover within STH (Short-Term Investor) shares. The rate of reduction in short-term holdings in the high-cost zone is slowing. Even with new price lows, there hasn't been a corresponding surge in share outflow. The pressure from concentrated selling by high-level buyers has eased. Furthermore, low-cost shares are decreasing at a steady pace, without exhibiting the characteristic of accelerated panic as prices fall; it's more like a combination of partial selling and conversion to LTH. The market is gradually transitioning from a large-scale share transfer in the early stages to a phase of digesting existing shares, with signs of weakening marginal selling pressure. Of course, weakening selling pressure doesn't mean an immediate price reversal; the key is whether the newly formed low-cost shares can stabilize. If prices fall again but fail to force a larger-scale sell-off (currently, the percentage of STH shares with unrealized losses has risen from 33% to 67%), then we may be one step closer to the end of this round of panic.