Today, I want to take a step back and examine the Bitcoin market from a macroeconomic perspective. It may be a relatively conventional approach, but given the severe liquidity constraints currently facing Bitcoin, I believe it's important to revisit the broader macro environment. Let me start with my conclusion. "The Bitcoin market has still not gone through sufficient accumulation, and liquidity conditions continue to deteriorate. At this point, we can only hope the market avoids a major shock. Even if it does, a much longer period of sideways consolidation may be necessary than many expect." As I've repeatedly discussed in my previous analyses, Bitcoin's internal liquidity conditions are extremely concerning. Buy-side liquidity continues to weaken, and the market is experiencing a significant liquidity squeeze. Against this backdrop, I want to examine the relationship between the U.S. dollar and Bitcoin's market cycles. This may be familiar territory for anyone who has spent some time studying financial markets. Generally speaking, the U.S. dollar is closely tied to global liquidity conditions. Looking back at Bitcoin's historical cycles, we have never seen Bitcoin sustain a full-fledged bull market while the dollar was in a strong upward trend. The bearish cycle that began in 2025 has not been particularly different in this regard. But that brings us to the most important question. "Are we really at the point where the U.S. dollar is about to enter a sustained downtrend?" To me, this is one of the most critical questions when assessing the current market. Let's look at the historical cycles objectively. In previous cycles, Bitcoin went through a prolonged bear market before entering a major bullish phase as the U.S. dollar began a sustained decline. (Image 1, green boxes) But the current situation is fundamentally different. Rather than entering a downtrend, the dollar is showing signs of establishing a strong upward trend. (Image 1, red box) This is the most important difference between previous bullish cycles and the market environment we face today. Now, take a look at Image 2. The U.S. dollar has broken above a trading range that had been forming for more than 500 days. There is something I frequently emphasize in my market analysis: "Once a trend is established, it rarely reverses easily." This is because of trend persistence. And this is not a trend that developed over a few weeks or months. We are looking at a breakout from a consolidation range that lasted more than 500 days. That makes this development particularly important. Even if the dollar eventually reverses and begins declining again, the process could take considerably longer than many investors anticipate. We also need to consider the broader macroeconomic environment. Interest rate hikes began in the third quarter of this year, while the political and economic environment surrounding the U.S. midterm elections has hardly been favorable for the crypto market. Meanwhile, selling pressure from Bitcoin mining companies is another major concern. Bitcoin selling activity among mining companies reached historically elevated levels during the third and fourth quarters of this year. At the same time, many mining companies have been shifting their business models toward AI data centers. Under these circumstances, can we realistically expect substantial new liquidity to flow into Bitcoin? At this point, I find it difficult to be confident that it will. Ultimately, Bitcoin needs a new catalyst and a compelling narrative capable of attracting fresh capital. Personally, I believe one of the strongest narratives Bitcoin could have is its role as "Digital Gold." But there has been an interesting shift here as well. One of the companies that most aggressively promoted Bitcoin as digital gold was Strategy. Back in 2022, Strategy frequently emphasized Bitcoin's identity as "Digital Gold." However, beginning in 2025, the company increasingly shifted its messaging toward concepts such as "Credit" and "Digital Capital," rather than emphasizing Bitcoin primarily as digital gold. Think about what that means. Even Strategy, one of the most influential companies capable of driving the digital gold narrative, is now emphasizing a different narrative. And now, with today's confirmation of its exclusion from the MSCI index, uncertainty surrounding the market has increased even further. So let me ask the question again. "Is liquidity in the Bitcoin market actually recovering?" Bitcoin has become far more deeply integrated into the traditional financial system than ever before. Through spot ETFs and growing institutional participation, Bitcoin is increasingly held within the portfolios of traditional financial institutions. As a result, its market behavior has become more closely connected to macroeconomic conditions and movements in traditional financial markets. In other words, Bitcoin is now more exposed to the broader macro environment, not less. Yet today, Bitcoin's internal liquidity remains weak, while external macroeconomic conditions are far from supportive. Under these circumstances, I find it difficult to see how Bitcoin could simply defy the broader macro environment and independently enter a powerful bullish cycle. For Bitcoin to begin a genuine, sustained bull market, new liquidity needs to enter the market. That is the fundamental requirement. And this brings me back to my current assessment. Right now, the priority should be hoping that the market can get through this period without experiencing a major shock. But even if we manage to avoid a significant disruption, unwinding excessive leverage and resolving the current liquidity imbalances could require a much longer period of consolidation and accumulation than many investors expect. If investors are expecting Bitcoin to quickly return to a steep upward trajectory from here, I think they may be setting themselves up for considerable disappointment. This is also why I intend to approach my next Bitcoin purchases with a much longer time horizon. Rather than rushing back into the market, I want to carefully assess how liquidity conditions develop and whether the market has gone through a sufficient accumulation process. I understand that my current outlook may sound pessimistic, or even discouraging. But the purpose of market analysis is not to consistently deliver an optimistic outlook. It is to objectively assess the environment we are operating in and develop an investment strategy that reflects those conditions. I simply do not believe this is the right time to approach the Bitcoin market aggressively. There is no need to rush. For now, I believe patience is more important than chasing a potential rebound. I would rather wait for liquidity to recover, allow the market enough time to accumulate, and position myself when a more favorable opportunity emerges.