On November 6th, we wrote a "15-Day Stress Test." Today is only day 5, and the script has already gone awry. The initial assumption was: Trump loses the midterm elections, Netanyahu steps down, and both strongmen are cornered, resorting to external conflict to divert attention from their respective problems. Oil prices surged to $150, the Nasdaq plummeted 10%, and Bitcoin tested $67,700. The reality five days later is: Trump and Netanyahu did not immediately launch an attack on Iran; they were both constrained! Therefore, the "external conflict" did not occur. Qatar stated that the US and Iran are studying mediation options and both sides are still willing to talk. Netanyahu wants to fight, but Trump wants to cut aid to Israel. Both strongmen are tied down by their respective domestic politics. Oil prices didn't surge to $150; instead, they fell to around $92. But inflation hasn't spared the market. The core CPI of 0.3% exceeded expectations, essentially confirming a December rate hike. BTC fell below 73,500, reaching a low of 72,695, and is currently around 73,800. The Nasdaq fell 0.74%, with Nvidia leading the decline. The geopolitical trigger didn't ignite; inflation and liquidity were the main factors that drove down US stocks and Bitcoin. The analysis needs to be revised, but the core conclusion remains the same: Geopolitical risk has shifted from "war" to "negotiation stalemate." Oil prices won't surge, but they also won't plummet. Inflation has become the only trigger; the core CPI of 0.3% is structural. BTC's stress test has changed form; 73,500 has been broken, the next target is 71,100, and a drop to 68K-70K is not impossible. In terms of trading strategy, don't heavily buy at 75,000. Wait until around 70,000 to buy a batch, and then buy another batch at the strong support level of 68,000. For US tech stocks, for medium- to long-term bottom-fishing, it's recommended to wait until after May 2027. In the short term, there are 180 possible directions in a single day. If the US and Iran reach an agreement, oil prices will likely collapse, inflation expectations will decline, and Bitcoin may see a stronger-than-expected rebound. The progress of the negotiations is currently more worthy of close monitoring than the threat of war. It's only been five days; the script is still being written.