律动BlockBeats|Nov 11, 2026 01:56
[FTX's Bankruptcy and Liquidation Lead to "Most Disastrous Failure in History": Missing Out on Anthropic's $100 Billion IPO Feast]
BlockBeats reports that on November 11, Anthropic publicly submitted and updated its prospectus (S-1/A) to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, planning to list on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol "ANT," with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley serving as lead underwriters.
The latest revised prospectus, submitted on November 10, discloses that ANT's offering price range is $70–$78 per share, with a public offering of approximately 825 million Class A common shares (approximately 801.35 million shares issued by the company itself, and approximately 23.65 million shares sold by existing shareholders). The underwriters also have an over-allotment option of approximately 123.75 million shares. Simultaneously, the company will conduct a private placement of approximately $26 billion in non-voting Class N shares with strategic investors including Google, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Micron, Microsoft, and TSMC, priced in line with the IPO price.
The market expects pricing to take place around November 18th, with trading potentially commencing on November 19th. Based on approximately 13.09 billion shares issued, the valuation is estimated at approximately $917 billion to $1.02 trillion; if fully diluted by options, restricted stock, etc., the high end could reach approximately $1.4 trillion. Previously, the market had anticipated a fundraising scale of approximately $100 billion and a valuation potentially reaching $2 trillion; the latest terms have been somewhat more conservative, but it is still expected to be one of the largest IPOs in the AI industry.
It is worth noting that FTX was an early major shareholder of Anthropic. Between 2021 and 2022, Alameda Research, an FTX-affiliated company, participated in Anthropic's funding round, acquiring approximately 7.84% of the company's shares (equivalent to approximately 44.54 million Series B shares) for about $500 million. At that time, generative AI had not yet experienced its subsequent explosive growth, and this investment became one of the most valuable non-crypto assets on FTX's balance sheet.
However, after FTX filed for bankruptcy protection in November 2022, the bankruptcy consortium needed to quickly recover liquidity to address customer asset shortfalls and creditor payments. In March 2024, following court approval, the FTX bankruptcy consortium first sold approximately 29.5 million shares for approximately $884 million; then, in June 2024, it sold the remaining approximately 15 million shares, recovering approximately $452 million. The two transactions combined recovered approximately $1.34 billion, about 2.68 times the original $500 million investment. Anthropic's valuation continued to rise afterward, and the potential for future IPO gains no longer lay with FTX creditors.
If FTX hadn't sold its shares, and assuming its approximately 7.84% stake wasn't diluted in subsequent financing rounds, then at Anthropic's valuation of $1.4 trillion, the theoretical value of those shares would have reached approximately $109.8 billion, a 219-fold increase and a return of 21,852%.
Based on the most frequently cited $8 billion customer funding gap at the time of FTX's bankruptcy, $109.8 billion would roughly cover 13.7 such funding gaps. Even deducting the initial $500 million principal, the theoretical profit of $109.3 billion would be enough to cover approximately 13.6 such gaps.
It's important to note that this is a static calculation. Anthropic underwent multiple rounds of financing, and the original shareholding was significantly diluted. According to the latest prospectus, the total number of fully diluted shares disclosed has decreased from approximately 445.4 million shares (after the stock split) to approximately 2.5% of the total shareholding. Based on the IPO price range of $70-$78, the theoretical value of these shares would be approximately $31.1 billion-$34.7 billion; even at the higher end of the fully diluted range (approximately $1.4 trillion), the value would be around $35 billion. Compared to the theoretical upper limit of nearly $110 billion ("maintaining 7.84% unchanged"), the actual diluted value has significantly decreased.
Share To
Timeline
HotFlash
APP
X
Telegram
CopyLink