Phyrex|Nov 10, 2026 08:21
A Note Before Tonight's CPI Data Release
Tonight, the US October CPI data will be released, but this time it's different from previous years. Last October, the US government shutdown resulted in most CPI indices not being released. The annualized CPI rate is calculated by comparing this October's index with last October's index. Since there's no base from last year, there won't be annualized CPI and core CPI data for October 2026.
Therefore, the market is mainly focused on the monthly rate tonight. Current expectations are for an October CPI monthly rate of 0.3% and a core CPI monthly rate of 0.2%. The previous values were 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively. The market seems quite optimistic, believing the October monthly rate will be lower than the previous value, by more than half.
I also looked at the Cleveland Fed's data: a monthly rate of 0.24% and a core monthly rate of 0.21%. The Cleveland Fed's data seems more aggressive.
From my personal perspective, without an annualized rate, the market will likely be more sensitive to monthly rates. If the October CPI monthly rate is still significantly higher than 0.3%, it basically indicates that energy prices are still being passed on to inflation, and the expectation of a December rate hike will likely increase.
If the monthly rate can come down, especially if the core CPI can remain around 0.2%, that is, less than or equal to expectations, then it will be a good boost for risk markets.
In simpler terms, if the CPI monthly rate and core monthly rate are less than or equal to expectations, it will be positive; if they are higher than expectations but lower than the previous value, it will be slightly negative; if they are higher than expectations and also higher than the previous value, it will be completely negative.
It is important to note that the December interest rate meeting is on December 10th. At that time, no data for November except for the non-farm payrolls will be released, so the October data may be the most influential result for the Fed's monetary policy.
@Gate, for more market insights
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