Murphy|Nov 10, 2026 04:32
At the end of yesterday's tweet, I said: The market is currently presenting us with an open-book exam.
I call it an "open-book exam" because we each have enough time to "look up the answers" and find the "solutions."
Here, I'll give my own answer:
The indicator in the chart measures how many standard deviations the realized loss/profit has deviated from the average of the past 90 days. Lower values indicate more concentrated selling at a loss, while higher values indicate more concentrated profit-taking.
Glassnode's official definition is: green signals represent Low Risk; red signals represent High Risk; there's also a transition zone in between, which I've hidden.
Each bar represents one day. The more consecutive bars, the longer the phenomenon lasts, and the higher the certainty of the behavior (not randomness).
Therefore, my answer to this "open-book exam" is: I would absolutely never sell my shares at a "Low Risk" level. Not in the short term, and even less so in the long term.
You can compare the data from 2026 (Figure 1) and 2023 (Figure 2) yourself.
Of course, your answer may differ from mine, and that's not important.
This is the best trading choice I've made within my current capabilities. Even if it's wrong, I won't regret it.
I hope you feel the same way.
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