Parr BTC Weekly Market Report – Week 2 of November 1. Candlestick Chart 1) As I mentioned last week, it was indeed a hellish week, completing an upward test of 82 and a downward dive to 749. 2) The lowest point has now dipped to 735, marking five consecutive weeks of decline on the weekly chart. The 735 level is near the annual VWAP and the 200-day moving average, indicating a mid-term position. Further downside would target 70-71. 3) Currently, we'll first observe the reaction at 75. If it holds, we'll continue to watch for a test of 79 and 82. If it fails to hold at 75, we'll continue testing 732, and if that fails, we'll test 70-71. 2. Relevant Data 1) ETFs: BTC saw a net outflow of approximately $1.282 billion last week, compared to a net outflow of approximately $202 million the previous week. Outflows occurred on 4 out of 5 days, with the largest single-day outflow being approximately 430 million on November 5th. IBIT saw outflows for all 5 days, totaling approximately 1.21 billion, accounting for about 94% of the week's total. The only inflow day was November 4th, with approximately 237 million flowing in via FBTC, but this inflow was reversed and sold off the following day. ETH saw a net outflow of approximately 365 million, marking three consecutive weeks of outflows, with only a single day, November 4th, seeing an inflow of approximately 53 million. Analysis: Institutional funds have shifted from event-driven concentrated redemptions to sustained outflows over several days. In particular, IBIT, which was a major source of buying in October, has become a major source of net outflows this week, indicating a significant deterioration in the short-term funding structure. The BTC pullback can no longer be explained solely by short-term leveraged liquidation. 2) Liquidations: This week, the cryptocurrency market saw approximately $3 billion in liquidations, with long positions accounting for about 78%, primarily concentrated on November 5th and 8th, amounting to approximately $900 million and $918 million respectively. However, this week's liquidation wasn't solely a one-sided clearing of long positions. Short positions were clearly liquidated first on November 4th, while large-scale long position liquidations occurred on November 5th and 8th. The market is repeatedly clearing out leveraged positions. 3) Stablecoins: Total market capitalization decreased from approximately $297.646 billion to approximately $293.234 billion, a reduction of approximately $4.412 billion (-1.48%), marking the third consecutive week of decline. This is due to a decrease in circulating supply, not asset burning. Analysis: Potential dollar liquidity in the cryptocurrency market continues to shrink, with a temporary lack of significant new funding support. The next key focus will be on observing changes in USDT/USDC supply and net exchange flows to determine whether funds are re-entering the spot market. 4) BTC Long-Term Holder SOPR: 11/7 LTH-SOPR was approximately 0.959, lower than 1; a significant decrease compared to approximately 1.183 seven days prior. Interpretation: Long-term holders are experiencing overall losses on their on-chain spending, reflecting pressure on some older holdings. However, SOPR still needs to be considered in conjunction with long-term holder selling volume, the scale of realized losses, and price structure; it cannot be considered a bottom signal in isolation. 3. Macroeconomic Events 11/10 Tuesday 21:30: CPI (October). 11/11 Wednesday: Veterans Day, US Treasury markets closed, US stock markets open as usual. The bond market's reaction to the CPI will be seen on Thursday. 11/13 Friday 21:30: PPI (October). Note: Higher-than-expected CPI and PPI are bearish, lower-than-expected are bullish. Last week's strong non-farm payrolls (+165,000) have already priced in a December rate hike, so weaker CPI may have a greater impact on BTC's volatility. 4. Key Earnings Reports Tuesday, November 10th (after market close, Beijing time, November 11th morning): CoreWeave (CRWV), EPS expected -$1.45. This is the first earnings report from the AI cloud provider; watch for demand and GPU residual value. Tuesday, November 10th (before market open, Beijing time, November 10th evening): Sea (SE), EPS expected 0.79. Thursday, November 12th (before market open, Beijing time, November 12th evening): Nebius (NBIS), EPS expected -0.61. Also an AI cloud provider; compare its earnings with CRWV's. Thursday, November 12th, after-market (Beijing time, November 13th morning): Cisco (CSCO), EPS expected 1.15; Applied Materials (AMAT), EPS expected 4.06, semiconductor equipment; Cerebras (CBRS), EPS expected -0.13, AI chips, first earnings report since IPO; Nu Holdings (NU), EPS expected 0.22. Friday, November 13th, before market opening (Beijing time, November 13th evening): Twenty One Capital (XXI), BTC financial company, most directly related to the cryptocurrency market, no EPS forecast. 5. Trading Strategy 1) Although the midterm elections have ended, volatility has only just begun. 2) The key focus here is whether the current liquidity at 749 can be recovered and stabilized. If it continues to fall below this level, continue to observe the 732 and 70-71 areas. If it recovers and stabilizes, focus on the test of 82-82. For more real-time information, please join our community: https://t.me/pabuerbtc