Looking at the True Level of Panic in the BTC Market Through Three Sets of Data What kind of data reflects market panic? Is it the opinions of influential figures on Twitter? The trend in the comments section? The news from independent media? None of these. For me, I pay more attention to the following three points: 1. Have long-term holders shown signs of "surrendering" (Figure 1)? Data shows yes! — On November 5th, the realized loss from LTH transferred to exchanges (LTH-RLTE) reached $139 million. This is data from the actual market, making it highly reliable. We can see that in the past year, only during the most panicked periods in February and June of this year did LTH-RLTE reach a higher scale. This fully illustrates the current level of anxiety in the market. However, everything has two sides: when even LTH starts to panic and sell off, it often indicates that the clearing of "panic selling" is accelerating. 2. Are short-term holders "frantically selling"? Data shows no! — The panic selling in STH had largely cleared out (changed hands) by January and February of this year. Even when BTC fell below $60,000 in June, it didn't force out much more realized loss. Why is this? Because after sufficient turnover, STH's overall cost basis decreased. New investors, after buying in, mostly chose to hold and observe since the price hadn't fallen below their psychological tolerance level. Like now, their average cost basis is around $75,000-$76,000. The current BTC price is right around the break-even point, so they appear relatively calm. 3. Is the overall realized loss on-chain increasing? Objectively speaking, the absolute value of the 24-hour average realized loss on-chain is very high! Especially after the Binance incident on October 30th and the US stock market crash on November 5th, two consecutive blows in a short period severely damaged market confidence. This explains the noticeable panic selling in STH on November 5th. Fortunately, we haven't seen the overall realized loss increase significantly yet. My personal understanding of this is that BTC investors are already expressing a mindset of "reluctance, but having no choice but to sell at a loss" through their behavior. Given this, restoring this sentiment requires a catalyst—when people gradually realize that the actual situation may not be as bad as they initially thought.