Annie 所长|Nov 07, 2026 07:10
After a 50% plunge, the biggest bubble in AI computing power will be revealed next Tuesday!
Tuesday, November 10th
1. CoreWeave CRWV will release its Q3 2026 results after the market closes. Market consensus expects revenue of approximately $3.54 billion (a year-over-year increase of approximately 159%), with an EPS loss of approximately $1.17-$1.45. The company previously guided Q3 revenue of $3.45-$3.6 billion, adjusted operating profit of $200-$260 million, interest expense of $860-$940 million, and capital expenditure of $11.5-$13.5 billion. Full-year revenue guidance has been revised upwards to $12.4-$13.2 billion, with a year-end annualized revenue run rate target of $18.5-$19.5 billion and an active power target exceeding 1.85GW.
Key focus will be on the GPU cluster rollout schedule, order backlog (previously approximately $104 billion, with over $25 billion in new commitments added at the beginning of Q3), actual utilization rates and whether customer deliveries are fulfilled, as well as interest and debt pressures. The stock price has recently fallen more than 50% from its high, with a market capitalization of approximately $25 billion. Analyst target prices are generally above $130, with a cautious sentiment but still many buy recommendations. From an industry perspective, AI computing power demand remains strong, but financing costs, delivery delays, and earnings reports from competitors like Iren have made the market more critical of debt-financed expansion models. Historically, post-earnings volatility is high, with an average weekly decline of about 15%.
Thursday, November 12th
2. Applied Materials (AMAT) announced its FY2026 Q4 and full-year results after the market closed. The market consensus is for revenue of approximately $10.3 billion and EPS of approximately $4.06. The company guided revenue of approximately $10.25 billion (± $500 million) and non-GAAP EPS of approximately $4.02 (± $0.20). Previously, the company emphasized strong performance in advanced processes, HBM, DRAM, and advanced packaging, raising its 2026 growth forecast for packaging to over 70% and its full-year semiconductor systems growth forecast to over 30%.
The key focus is on orders (especially advanced processes, HBM, and wafer fab equipment), changes in the proportion of Chinese companies, and management's latest outlook on equipment demand and customer visibility in 2027 (which has already extended to 2030). The stock price has recently corrected by about 50% from its high, with a market capitalization of approximately $260 billion, a forward P/E ratio of approximately 19, and an average analyst target price of approximately $630. The rating is slightly bullish. AI-driven equipment demand remains the core narrative, but expectations are already high; even though the last earnings report exceeded expectations, the stock price still fell. Historically, the average volatility after earnings reports is approximately ±6%.
3. Nebius NBIS announced its Q3 2026 results before the market opened. The market consensus expects revenue of approximately $900-930 million (a year-on-year surge of approximately 520%), with an EPS loss of approximately $0.61-0.72. The year-end ARR target is $7-9 billion (reached $3 billion by the end of June), with full-year revenue guidance of $3-3.4 billion, capital expenditure of $20-25 billion, and a contracted power target of approximately 5GW.
The investor day in late October didn't provide any earnings forecasts, and the stock fell 17% within a week and approximately 29% in the past month. Despite better-than-expected quarterly revenue of $9.12 billion (+24.8%) and EPS of $3.50 (+41%), the stock still fell, indicating the market had already priced in extremely strong performance. Furthermore, with approximately 20% of the stock held by short sellers, the initial short squeeze rebound shouldn't be mistaken for a fundamental reversal. Analysts' target price is around $280, and sentiment has shifted from euphoria to a greater focus on execution and return on capital expenditures.
Will next week see a short squeeze frenzy or a guillotine?
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