AiCoin中文|Nov 07, 2026 07:03
Is unlocking $17 million necessarily more stressful than unlocking $300,000?
In this set of Tokenomist screenshots:
ENA will unlock approximately $17.03 million next time, representing 0.88% of the circulating supply;
OPN will unlock approximately $451,400, representing 2.42%;
MAVIA will unlock approximately $307,700, representing 10.09%.
ENA has the largest amount, but relative to the existing circulating supply, MAVIA represents a higher proportion of new tokens.
However, a higher proportion doesn't necessarily mean a greater drop. To assess the impact of unlocking, three things need to be considered:
First, the ownership and release pace of the tokens.
The second ARB chart shows the overall distribution structure and cumulative release plan. The funding needs of the team, investors, and the DAO treasury may differ, resulting in different supply paces for concentrated releases and phased releases.
However, the overall distribution ratio is not equal to the unlock ratio for this particular unlock, and the identity of the recipient does not prove they will immediately sell.
Second, market absorption capacity.
High 24-hour trading volume does not necessarily mean the current order book can absorb an equivalent size of sell orders. The same batch of shares, sold in a dispersed manner versus a concentrated sell-off, can have vastly different price impacts.
Thirdly, has the expectation been priced in beforehand?
Publicly announced unlocking plans may influence positions and prices even before the unlocking process begins, so one cannot solely rely on the price fluctuations on the unlocking day.
The unlocking calendar provides a timeline for potential supply. The actual amount of selling pressure depends on who sells, how they sell, and the extent to which buying pressure can absorb the supply.
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