qinbafrank
qinbafrank|Nov 06, 2026 14:29
How should we interpret the newly released October US non-farm payroll data? It reveals that the widespread market concerns about large-scale job displacement due to AI have not yet fully materialized. October saw 165,000 new jobs, far exceeding the expected 65,000, with the previous two months' figures revised upwards by 84,000. The three-month average is approximately 137,000 new jobs, significantly higher than the previous 12-month average of approximately 48,000 per month. More importantly, this non-farm payroll data has a relatively good breadth: 1) Professional and Business Services: +70,000 (far exceeding the monthly average of approximately 15,000), including +33,000 in professional technology services, +28,000 in administrative support and waste management, and +9,000 in business management. Temporary assistance services also rebounded, adding +18,600. 2) Healthcare: +42,000 (higher than the monthly average of approximately 31,000), including +16,000 in hospitals, +11,000 in home health care, and +5,000 in outpatient centers. 3) Transportation and Warehousing: +25,000 (including +17,000 in express delivery and courier services, and +4,000 in air transport). 4) Manufacturing: +19,000 (positive signal), with durable goods making a significant contribution. It's clear that the breadth of employment has improved considerably this time, no longer as highly concentrated in healthcare as in previous periods. Moreover, the private sector contributed the majority of the increase, with the government contributing only +6,000. Of course, with strong non-farm payrolls, the market is naturally worried about a December rate hike. From my personal perspective, a December rate hike is highly probable. However, what's more important for the market isn't the December rate hike itself, but rather the oil price trend in the next month or two. This will determine whether the Fed will raise rates again in the first quarter of next year. This is more crucial. This post is sponsored by @bitget_zh, "Bitget Buy US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading"
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