degentrading|11月 06, 2026 08:20
Pre Market Thoughts - 6 Nov 26
Historic crash across the indexes last night in US trading. We had NDX down almost 6% with SPX also down ~3%...Meanwhile AI single names took a brunt of the damage being down 15% -20% on average.
Factor wise - momentum has suffered the largest drawdown since, outstripping levels seen in the dotcom bust.
For any AI bulls - this is what you ideally want to see. Which is the index and wealth destruction in other sectors. Only then can you get policy support to come. The largest component of GDP growth comes from the AI/semis sector - so if its really over - nothing is going to escape this blast radius for awhile.
IREN reported last night - this is one of the trashiest names in the neocloud sector - they have been plagued by delays and correspondingly their stock has suffered greatly. It is down ~57% ytd. I think the destruction in neos has been so lopsided that names like IREN are at 7B marketcap which is effectively trading close to their net book value. Given the shortage of compute, this makes the land and the asset value of IREN extremely valuable - and i think it could be a name for a buyout.
IREN also has some interesting tidbits in the earnings - it said that its recent customer contracts came with a 90% prepayment. This was 40-45% last quarter. Which tells you that there is so much demand for compute (as evidenced by the GPU rental rates at less than 1Y payback) - figures are 22M/MW for 90% prepayment and 40M/MW for no prepayment. This is basically coming in at less than half a year of payback for GPUs only and about 1 year payback for GPU + Shell construction. Shells have a life of 15-20 years.
On my end, i am fully allocated across in Neos - my main picks are NBIS, IREN, SHAZ. (for example, SHAZ has $18 of net cash per share, trading at 20) ....how can i pass this up? I also have MU/SNDK/DRAM. My levels into these on the value purchases are 115 for NBIS, 17.35 for IREN and 20 for SHAZ, 667 for MU and 39 for DRAM ...screenshots posted on tele channel for proof of no larp.
It is a fools task to try to time the bottom - for me i am not sure if i bought the bottom or not. But i dont really care about that. These are zones where i think there is enough value and so i will grudgingly bid (with alot of fear)
In crypto - BTC has performed extremely strong vs what has happened in equities. I like tickers like ZEC and PEPE.
I will write a more detailed account of NBIS/SHAZ/IREN over the weekend.
Good luck!
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