Nasdaq-100 forward returns after one-day drops of 6.25% or more, like today’s (NDX, Jan 1985 to Nov 2026, n=33 days). Takeaways: ➤ 21 days later: average +5.2% vs +1.3% for any day. Index higher in 64% of cases vs 63%. ➤ 63 days later: average +4.9% vs +4.1% for any day. Index higher in 64% of cases vs 69%. By 3 months the edge is mostly gone. ➤ Further losses common: NDX fell another 10% or more within 63 days in 21 of 33 cases. ➤ In 1987 and 2020 a fast policy backstop ended the forced selling within two weeks. In 2000–01 and 2008 earnings and credit losses that policy couldn’t fix kept the index falling for months. Today’s trigger was the midterms. Texas elected Hinojosa as governor on a promise to freeze data center permits, and voters elsewhere passed restrictions in 40 of 41 local data center ballot measures. The obvious comparison is 2000. But the 2000 crash came from collapsing demand, while this comes from expected policy changes, and expectations can reverse. The closest precedent is April 2025: NDX fell 6.1% on tariffs, Trump hit pause three sessions later, and NDX was up 30.5% after 63 days. Then one person caused the shock and could reverse it. Here expectations depend on a new governor and Congress, so a V-reversal is harder. There is a flipside. The same Democratic wave that threatens the AI buildout also limits Trump’s room to escalate in Iran. A deal is barely priced. Lower oil would mean a less hawkish Fed, and lower rates help long-duration tech the most.