qinbafrank|Nov 04, 2026 13:25
With the Democrats gaining a majority in both the House and Senate, will President Trump be "purged"? First, let me state my personal opinion: anyone suggesting he'll be "purged" likely doesn't understand the workings of American politics or the boundaries between legislative and executive powers. But will this affect the short-term performance of SpaceX and Tesla? It probably will, because some investors will worry about a potential "purging" of Trump, potentially impacting their stock prices. However, this could actually create better entry points. Let's discuss my thoughts:
1. The Democrats have a majority in both the House and Senate, but not an absolute majority of more than two-thirds; it's just a simple majority.
Trump will remain president for the next two years, and government regulatory bodies closely related to Trump's businesses, such as the Treasury, Defense, Commerce, Justice, NASA, and the FCC, will remain under Republican control.
We need to define the boundaries between legislative and executive powers.
2. So what can the Democrats do? 1) Hearings and Investigations (Most Likely and Immediate): Multiple committees (House Oversight, Armed Services, Science/Space/Technology; relevant Senate committees) will initiate investigations and hearings.
These will directly target Musk's leadership of DOGE last year, the bidding and execution of various contracts between SpaceX and NASA and the Space Force, Starlink usage issues, foreign investment (especially allegations related to China), the national security/antitrust implications of potential mergers and acquisitions, and AI/Grok contracts and usage. This will involve subpoenaing Musk/executives, obtaining documents, and holding public hearings.
2) Contract and Funding Oversight: Reviewing existing and future orders (related to NASA Crew/HLS, Space Force NSSL/Starshield/Golden Dome). Impacting future funding levels through appropriations bills, imposing conditions, or requiring reviews. Unilateral cancellation of awarded fixed-price contracts is not easily possible (with justifiable reasons such as performance issues), but delaying new awards and creating pressure can be implemented.
3) Legislative and Regulatory Pressure: Pushing for stricter AI regulations, content/platform rules (impacting X), EV/autonomous driving rules, and contract transparency/conflict of interest rules. Mergers and acquisitions may be slowed down by hearings. For Tesla, this is more about changes in the regulatory environment than direct contracts. However, legislation requires Trump's signature, and regulatory pressure requires the cooperation of the executive branch.
3. In reality, most of these actions are more form than substance. Hearings, subpoenas, and public inquiries are largely political shows, their biggest effects being wasting executives' time, generating negative news, causing stock price fluctuations, and increasing investor risk premiums. They can amplify concerns through the media and public opinion.
Without the cooperation of the executive branch, congressional hearings, inquiries, and investigations cannot be implemented.
Institutional execution, contract management, and regulatory enforcement are in the hands of the White House/Department of Defense/NASA. Congress can investigate and exert pressure, but directly "suspending orders" or large-scale lawsuits requires the cooperation of the executive branch. For complete legislation, it needs to pass both houses of Congress and may face a veto by Trump.
4. Actions at the state level may have a greater impact, especially in Texas. This time, the Democrats made a major comeback in Texas, producing the first Democratic governor of Texas since the 1990s.
Texas is the absolute core of Musk's business empire. He himself has moved from California to Austin, Texas, where Tesla's global headquarters and Gigafactory are located. Starbase, located in Boca Chica, at the southern tip of Texas, is the core launch site for SpaceX's Starships.
These massive fixed assets cannot be moved, meaning that the direction of the state's political environment (such as land use, local resident protests, and legal proceedings) will also determine the status of his core businesses.
However, from another perspective, a Democratic governor may increase regulatory requirements and taxes, but it cannot be said that she completely disregards the state's economic development. After all, both Tesla and SpaceX are pillar companies in Texas, and Texas itself has benefited from the development of Tesla and SpaceX, with significant local interests.
Therefore, Texas's actions will have an impact, which I personally believe will be mainly in two aspects: more regulation and more taxes.
Overall, saying that the Democrats will "purge" Musk during Trump's two-year term is a bit of an exaggeration, but it cannot be said that there will be no impact at all. However, this impact is likely to be short-term and temporary. Personally, I hope this concern will cause SpaceX's stock price to drop, giving us a better opportunity to buy in.
This post is sponsored by @bitget_zh, "Bitget Buys US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading"
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