The next insight from our Q4 Market Outlook: a check on the signals we flagged for the quarter. We said two things would decide the direction. First, whether inflation data lets the Fed hold. Second, whether the 30-year Treasury yield stops rising. The score so far: ▪️ The Fed held on October 28, by a 10 to 2 vote, with two members wanting a hike. ▪️The 30-year yield eased from 5.67% on October 7 to 5.28% on November 2. Demand has not followed. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $1.04 billion in net outflows on October 30 and November 2, after $2.65 billion of inflows in September. That is about 1% of the roughly $98 billion these funds hold. Our outlook links resuming inflows to its upside case and reversing flows to its setback case. Bitcoin trades near $76,500, about 7% below the $82,300 average cost of US ETF holders. What comes next: the US Treasury’s borrowing update on November 4, the jobs report on November 6, and CPI inflation data on November 10. Until then, ETF flows are the signal to watch.