小龙先生|Nov 01, 2026 13:31
Wall Street tycoon Bill Ackman has spoken: Buy Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta as prices fall. Is this a contrarian strategy?
He not only bought them, but he heavily invested in them. These three companies currently make up a third of his portfolio.
His reasoning is extremely sound: the market is selling off these companies because of their "massive capital expenditure commitments," but this is precisely a buying opportunity.
This logic clashes sharply with our previous discussion on "AI faith liquidation."
We have repeatedly emphasized that the market is shifting from "faith pricing" back to "profit pricing." Whoever burns through cash until free cash flow turns negative will be severely punished by the market.
After Google and Meta's earnings reports, the market voted with its feet.
But why does this tycoon dare to buy against the trend?
Because ordinary people look at earnings reports to see "whether free cash flow is negative."
The tycoon looks at earnings reports to see "whether this capital expenditure can actually create a deeper moat."
Ackman's bet is: short-term cash flow pain in exchange for an insurmountable AI infrastructure dominance over the next decade.
This leads to the core disagreement in the trade: Faced with the same financial report of "free cash flow -9.1 billion,"
you see it as a financial disaster, he sees it as a discount.
you see it as burning cash, he sees it as a competitive advantage.
As ordinary people, should we follow the big players and buy the dip?
If you don't have Ackman's capital to withstand a year or two of drawdowns, nor his absolute faith in the underlying logic of tech giants,
then watching the big players enter the market while we observe from the sidelines is the safest approach.
He's holding a third of his portfolio; you might be holding your entire family's fortune.
Duan Yongping, with a floating loss of around 1.5 billion on his Pop Mart holdings, is still enjoying life with a smile.
The big players buying more as prices fall is called value investing; ordinary people buying more as prices fall is called catching a falling knife.
Do you believe in his "buy more as the price drops" strategy?
Anyway, I'm not buying; I'm waiting for a crash!
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