Murphy|Nov 01, 2026 07:22
STH Holdings Structure: Repricing, Redistribution, and Emerging Support
As of October 31st, the total STH supply (physically adjusted) was 2,235,300 BTC; of which 1,147,000 BTC were at a loss, accounting for 51.30%.
STH's holding cost structure clearly exhibits a bimodal distribution:
The $78K-$86K range is the primary high-level holding concentration area, holding 1,145,000 BTC, accounting for 51.2% of the total STH supply.
The $60K-$65K range is an important low-cost holding concentration area, with 556,000 BTC, accounting for 24.9% (Figure 1).
Statistical analysis shows that September saw the fastest decline in "low-cost holdings," with an average daily net decrease of 6,733 BTC; however, the rate of decline slowed significantly in October (Figure 2).
However, a noteworthy reversal occurred after the Binance security incident:
The high-cost BTC that had been steadily increasing in the $78K–$87K range began to decrease, while the $75K–$78K range saw a net increase of 90,000 BTC in two days, with 40,000 of those coming from the high-cost zone (Figure 3).
This means that BTC's cost repricing is starting to concentrate in lower price ranges. Judging from market behavior, I believe this is a positive phenomenon.
Because when the market is hit by a sudden negative shock, a large amount of BTC still forms new holding costs at lower prices. This is significantly different from a market environment with a complete lack of buying support.
There was no sustained, abnormally drastic decrease in low-cost BTC; the decrease in the high-cost range remains limited relative to its large existing stock.
My personal assessment is that the black swan event accelerated the turnover and repricing of BTC, while a group of buying forces emerged in the $75K–$78K range.
While we cannot yet confirm that this force is strong enough to drive the next upward move, it can at least act as resistance to further declines and calm panic.
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