wu fan
wu fan|10月 31, 2026 09:20
I forget which book it was in, but Munger and Buffett mentioned that when faced with months or even years of losses due to market corrections, the most reliable strategy in hindsight is to do nothing. If you've already bought the stock you want, and its fundamentals haven't changed, or are even improving, but the stock price is still falling, what you should do is hold onto your position and do nothing. "Do nothing" doesn't mean you shouldn't buy more. If you have enough cash, of course you can add to your position. "Do nothing" means don't sell at a loss, don't be afraid, and don't try to use high-frequency trading to lower your cost basis, because it's not worth it. Five months ago, when everyone was selling off Moutai to buy AI-related stocks, if you had either continued your dollar-cost averaging or held on and done nothing, you would have made a 15% profit this year, possibly more including dividends. Your maximum loss would probably have been around 10%. At the time, many people said Moutai would fall even lower. I... Sell first, then buy back when it drops. Looking back, the actual point of sale was the lowest point. You were thinking of buying back at an even lower price, but you were only looking at the higher price you could have bought back at. The Nasdaq dropped 10% in 3 weeks. QQ's annualized compound growth rate is only 9.5%. If you originally planned to buy 1 million QQ, buying half (50%) is appropriate. Don't think about day trading to sell and buy back at a lower price. Invest the other half in a fixed-amount investment plan until it drops another 20%. What if it drops 30%? Then just hold on and wait. This happens, but it's rare. You've already bought at a 10-15% lower cost basis than the highest point. That's your profit for this year. Remember Munger and Buffett's experience. If your CRCL position isn't large enough today, you can still continue with a fixed-amount investment plan. If you don't have much cash left, just hold CRCL and don't do anything else. Good stocks always recover.
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