RamenPanda|Oct 30, 2026 16:51
As a former Intel engineer at INTC, I wrote down my thoughts on the company in December 2024.
I advised investors to stay away from Intel.
Has my opinion changed?
I have never held Intel stock. Not when the stock price was rising. I worked there. I know those failures were never demand issues. They were management and execution issues.
Recently, I bought a small number of 2028 call options. I spoke with former colleagues. Under Lip-Bu Tan's leadership, the company is focused on profitability. Old, inefficient old guard is being purged. The foundry is performing better. Yields on the 18A process are improving.
I've always been skeptical of yields. Not just Intel, but any U.S. foundry, given how much talent we've lost over the years. That skepticism is starting to fade.
Yesterday's call was tough. Supply is the ceiling. There's a substrate shortage. A tragic accident shut down Fab 28. The stock price dropped 21%.
After a lot of anxiety, I decided to hold. Here's why. Intel comprises two distinct businesses. One designs CPUs for servers and PCs. The other is a capital-intensive foundry. For both, demand isn't the issue. Execution is.
Intel still shows signs of fatigue. But it now has its best CEO in a decade, and the US government holds a stake. It's better equipped than I've ever observed to correct its mistakes. Demand is strong.
There's a bigger picture. Intel is the only leading foundry in the US, and the only one showing real signs of change.
China is ahead in many ways. Relying on Taiwan is not a long-term solution. Trillions of dollars of US technology run on chips made on an island Beijing claims as part of China.
Intel cannot afford to fail.
So I'll give it a chance. Call me stupid.
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