TraderS | 缺德道人|10月 30, 2026 09:28
Despite today's theft incident, the market's focus remains undeniably on US AI stocks, especially given the significant drop in Amazon and Intel's earnings reports, which makes the existing AI narrative seem unsustainable. This bottomless pit of cash burning has created a very pessimistic market, and it seems unlikely to stop without a new narrative.
In fact, since at least Q2, the market has stopped rewarding the cash-burning game of low-revenue, high-expenditure models. Looking at the bigger picture, the September rebound was merely a ripple effect of the July decline. If there was any lingering illusion about an AI bubble, this drop undoubtedly proves that the AI hype has peaked.
Anthropic's IPO next month might coincide with a period of market liquidity and confidence recovery, but Anthropic's massive capital outflow will likely offset any potential macroeconomic improvement, inevitably adding to the pessimism.
The current AI hype has led to a surge in hardware prices, and the surge in storage prices has further increased costs across the entire industry chain. Amazon cited storage costs as the reason for raising its capex in Q2, Samsung's mobile phone and home appliance division lost 800 billion won due to increased storage prices, and Intel's PC revenue decreased by 5%.
With terminal revenue insufficient to support this bottomless cash burn, the invisible ceiling for the stock price has already been drawn.
Returning to Bitcoin, it already had room for further decline, compounded by the US stock market sell-off and the hack, which accelerated today's move. But from another perspective, even with such significant negative news, it only dropped to 76k, which is quite strong, isn't it?
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