Phyrex|10月 30, 2026 07:44
Hynix and Samsung both reported record earnings, but why are their stock prices still falling?
I haven't talked about Hynix and semiconductors for a while, especially after Token 2049 when I was too busy to short ADRs and barely looked at semiconductors. Recently, a friend who's been investing in Hynix came to visit, so I quickly picked it up again.
Coincidentally, Hynix and Samsung also released their Q3 2026 earnings reports in the last two days. Overall, the demand for memory chips from AI data centers remains strong, and both companies saw record quarterly revenues and profits. Hynix's report was particularly strong.
Hynix's Q3 revenue reached 104.62 trillion won, and operating profit reached 83.33 trillion won, about 8.3% higher than the market expectation of 76.96 trillion won. Samsung Electronics' revenue reached 195.3 trillion won, with operating profit reaching 107.4 trillion won, of which the semiconductor division contributed 106.5 trillion won in operating profit.
From a business perspective, this round of growth is not solely driven by HBM4 chips needed for AI chips. Hynix began large-scale shipments of HBM4 in the third quarter, server DDR5 shipments increased by more than 40% compared to the previous quarter, and sales of enterprise-grade SSDs also expanded. Samsung also increased sales of HBM4 and server SSDs, with the company stating that both revenue and profit in its storage business reached record highs for the quarter.
Hynix's average selling price for DRAM rose by more than 20% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, and the average selling price for NAND also rose by more than 20%.
Hynix anticipates that the supply shortage in the storage market may continue until 2030 due to the construction of AI data centers and the commissioning cycle of new factories. The company has signed long-term agreements with 14 major customers, covering more than half of its capacity in 2027 and 2028. Samsung also believes that demand for AI-related storage will grow faster than industry supply growth in 2027.
Here I have to complain a bit. I was originally planning to wait until 2027 to see if memory prices would drop, but given the current situation, that seems unlikely. Buying memory now has become more of an investment.
Looking at stock price trends, SK Hynix's earnings report exceeded expectations, and its stock price rose 10.89% on October 28th, the day the report was released, and continued to rise the following day. Samsung's stock price fell 4.13% after releasing detailed earnings on October 29th, mainly due to its semiconductor division's operating profit slightly falling short of analysts' expectations.
Today, both companies' stock prices have fallen. The previous day, Alphabet (Google)'s revenue fell short of market expectations, and increased AI investment also brought attention to cash flow, causing its stock price to drop 12.64%.
The market is concerned about whether tech companies' continued investment of so much money in building AI data centers will generate sufficient returns in the future. If customers slow down expansion to control spending, future storage orders for SK Hynix and Samsung could also be affected. This is what I often refer to as excessive capital expenditure.
So, overall, AI's demand for HBM, server memory, and SSDs remains strong, and SK Hynix and Samsung's storage businesses are indeed profitable. However, investor concerns about AI capital expenditure have spread to the downstream supply chain. It's fair to say that as long as this Damocles' sword hanging over AI remains, the market will always worry that the performance of Samsung and SK Hynix might become a mirage.
@Gate, trading more markets
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