财经少华|Oct 30, 2026 04:10
Regarding the Binance hack, Binance has confirmed that approximately $2.5 billion in assets have been frozen, roughly half of the total stolen amount. The remaining majority consists mainly of BTC and ETH.
Let's start with BTC. About a billion dollars were taken, but it won't easily translate into significant selling pressure.
Bitcoin lacks large-scale mixers with deep liquidity like Tornado Cash on Ethereum. These addresses are also flagged by major exchanges and on-chain analytics companies, making transfers or liquidations much more difficult than with ETH.
Looking back at past large-scale hacks, the Bitcoin stolen from Bitfinex in 2016 remained untouched for several years. In July of this year, approximately 1,800 BTC were stolen from cold wallet provider Coldcard, and as of early September, 90% remained untouched; the hackers only managed to move a small portion sporadically via cross-chain bridges.
This Binance theft is ten times larger than the previous one, involving billions of dollars worth of BTC. Just splitting addresses and mixing the coins would be a project taking years, followed by discounted OTC transactions, the entire process would take at least several years.
Therefore, while the stolen BTC appears to be negative news, it's actually a form of locked-up Bitcoin. On the other hand, if Binance uses SAFU to compensate, it will also have to replenish the Bitcoin afterward. This means the short-term selling pressure from the stolen BTC is almost zero, and Binance might even see buying pressure.
ETH fares worse. Many ERC-20 tokens were exchanged for ETH and then dumped into Tornado, making it virtually impossible to recover. All things considered, the actual selling pressure that could materialize is probably in the billions of dollars.
Market confidence will certainly be affected, but the direct selling pressure on Bitcoin itself isn't as significant as initially thought.
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