TraderS | 缺德道人|Oct 29, 2026 09:46
The PCE data will be released at 8:30 PM tonight. Intuitively, the data doesn't look promising. For a comparison, refer to the CPI and PPI data from two weeks ago; both were hawkish and overbought. High oil prices have persisted for so long, especially diesel prices, which are crucial to the US logistics industry and ultimately impact consumer goods, making them very difficult to suppress.
However, thanks to the two previous waves of high CPI and PPI data that have already impacted the market, this third wave, as long as it's not too extreme, is manageable. In fact, unless it's drastically bad, it might even turn out to be a positive development.
Currently, the market expects September core PCE to rise 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year; overall PCE to rise 0.5% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year. Given the high oil price environment, a final figure less than or equal to the expectation would be a victory (provided there's no manipulation of decimal rounding).
If the PCE data is unexpectedly mild and dovish, the potential breakthrough might lie in the handling of the weighting factor conversion for airfares. In short, when the data is released, you can quickly judge the market sentiment by checking whether the core monthly rate is 0.2% or 0.3%.
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