The probability of a rate hike at 2 PM tonight is only 5%, with a high probability of no rate hike. There are roughly three hurdles between now and Friday afternoon: 1) The wording of the statement/press conference regarding the December path; 2) Thursday night's PCE (media expectations are around 3.6%–3.7%, don't take it as fact until it's officially announced); 3) Approximately $11 billion BTC options expire on Friday (third-party statistics; Max pain is not a target price).