PANews|Oct 28, 2026 12:24
[Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation: Limited Impact of US Midterm Election on US Treasuries; Democratic Victory Could Push Up Interest Rates] A report from Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) states that the varying outcomes of the November 3rd US midterm elections will have a limited impact on the interest rate market. However, if the Democrats control both the House and Senate, they may push up US Treasury yields slightly by increasing healthcare spending. The report estimates that if Democratic healthcare policies are fully implemented, spending could increase by $1.5 trillion over the next 10 years; the cost of restoring Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies would be approximately $80 billion over three years and $350 billion over ten years. If Congress is divided between the two parties, major tax and spending adjustments are expected to be difficult to implement, and tariff policies are unlikely to be directly overturned by Congress. Another risk worth noting is AI data centers: local governments may tighten construction restrictions or cancel preferential tax policies, slowing down some AI investment, but SMBC believes this will likely have a limited impact on overall economic growth and the Federal Reserve's policy path.
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