Anthropic has officially filed for its S-1 listing. I previously discussed my assessment of its IPO: Before the IPO, I was bullish on AI and semiconductors in the short term. After the IPO, I will start looking for opportunities to turn bearish. 1. Before the IPO, focus on expectations. The IPO of such a large AI company is likely to reignite sentiment in the AI and semiconductor sectors. This market movement is worth watching, but my strategy is clear: short-term bullish with strict risk control. I cannot change my trading plan from pre-IPO expectations to long-term holding after a few days of gains. 2. After the IPO, the market will seriously consider the valuation. One of my previous projections was that if sentiment is sufficiently high, Anthropic's valuation could be pushed to around $2.5 trillion, before returning to $1.5-2 trillion. This is my scenario assessment; the actual valuation will depend on the final pricing and the extent to which the market has already hyped the stock before the IPO. With such a high valuation, how much revenue and profit will be needed to sustain it? My concern is that once the market starts recalculating this, the valuation of the entire AI and semiconductor sectors could face significant challenges. 3. Therefore, the most important thing for me in this matter is the trading timing. Pre-IPO price increases are worthwhile, but post-IPO valuation risks must be considered in advance. These two judgments are not contradictory. Coinbase/Deribit has already launched Anthropic's pre-IPO perpetual contracts. Users meeting regional and account eligibility requirements can trade its valuation expectations before the official listing. For those following this trend, corresponding trading tools are already available. But even with the tools, you still need to judge the price yourself. If the market has already fully priced in the price, I won't chase it just because "I can finally buy it." Invitation link: Eligible users receive a 275U reward: http://(coinbase.com)/aff/bugsbunny